Big Oscar Post, Part One.

Well, it's Groundhog Day ... again.

Okay, it's not, but it IS Oscar Eve Eve, and as I sit here listening to the way awesome Juno soundtrack (I loooove Ellen Page and Michael Sera singing "Anyone Else But You."  Wow.), I've decided that it's a fine time for me to start making my very own Oscar predictions.  Who am I to make Oscar predictions?  Why, I'm a guy who goes to a medium amount of movies each year!  And manages to see a handful of the nominated films.  And I read a lot about this stuff.  So I make educated guesses, and I hope like crazy that a select few films will win each year.  No, I'm not very qualified, but I don't caaaaare.  So let's do this.

I'm gonna cover eight categories per day, today and Saturday and Sunday before the show.  I'll do a mix each day of small and big categories.  And I'll tell you who I think WILL win, and who SHOULD win (says me).  Here we go:

Uh, did the voters like Enchanted's music, by any chance?  That's pathetic.  I liked that movie.  Quite a lot.  But come ON.  There were good songs in other films.  That's absurd.  There's a rule that says each country can submit just one film in the foreign language category but three songs from one movie can be nominated here?  Hmm.  So anyway.  I've seen Enchanted (very good), and I've seen August Rush (pretty bad, though Keri Russell made it okay).  I haven't seen Once, which I'm quite certain is the best film of the three.  So, let's see.  WILL WIN:  I say it's gonna be "Happy Working Song," which I actually really enjoyed.  However, would it be as good without the rats and cockroaches?  Probably not.  Is a song nominated because it's a great song, or because it worked best in the film in which it was featured?  Not sure.  And SHOULD WIN: Again, I haven't seen the film, but I suspect "Falling Slowly" really oughta win this one.

I saw three of these.  Bourne, Ratatouille and Yuma.  I want to see No Country.  I never will see Transformers unless someone pays me, as I am a huge film snob and Michael Bay sucks.  So ... I don't even know what this category entails, quite honestly.  So.  Uh, WILL WIN: I'm not looking at anyone else's predictions as I write this stuff, so this one's the equivalent of me throwing darts.  I'm going with ... um ... hmm.  No clue.  Okay, I'll say Bourne.  Why not.  And SHOULD WIN?  Sheesh.  Fine, 3:10 to Yuma.  I just liked it, ha.  I seriously don't know just what Sound Mixing is.

I've only seen Pirates here, which I liked in spite of myself (I thought the second Pirates was atrocious, but the third was aaaight).  So visual effects, hmm?  Seems like all three were good in that regard.  So will the Academy like big, metamorphizing (made-up word?) robots?  Grotesque pirate stuff?  Or anti-religious polar bears and Nicole Kidman?  Hmmm.  WILL WIN:  I have no idea again.  Um ... we'll go with Transformers.  Looked like the robots were cool.  SHOULD WIN:  Well, I'll go with The Golden Compass, because I think that world they created looked pretty impressive.  And I don't want Pirates to win for this, because I think the visual effects were worse than they seemed.

Of these, I have seen American Gangster and Atonement.  I desperately want to see There Will Be Blood.  I would see Sweeney Todd, but I probably won't unless it comes to HBO.  I thought both Gangster and Atonement were awesome, and both looked fantastic.  There Will Be Blood and Sweeney Todd look amazing in different ways.  So.  WILL WIN: Sweeney Todd.  Can't see Tim Burton's dark, dark London missing here.  SHOULD WIN: You know, that's tricky.  I wonder sometimes if the more dramatic sort of look in a movie is easier than something more subtle.  I'm actually going with American Gangster here, because it did an incredible job of recreating 70's Harlem.  Just amazing.  Atonement was beautifully done, too.  I wouldn't count out Blood, though.

I've seen only Atonement here, though I would love to see all the others.  WILL WIN: They all looked lovely from what I can tell.  I think ... I'll say There Will Be Blood.  SHOULD WIN: Jesse James.  It looked sorta spectacular to me.  I don't really think it ever opened in theatres here.

Dude, I've obviously seen none of these, and I have no idea what any are about.  Thus, me picking a "will" and "should" win is ridiculous and pointless.  So, WILL WIN: Sari's Mother, of course.  SHOULD WIN: Well, Salim Baba is fun to say, and La Corona reminds me both of beer and the sun, and Freeheld sounds like the craptastic Mick Jagger joint Freejack, but yeah, it's Sari's Mother's night to shine.

Now we're talking.  BIG category!  Woo!  I've seen three of the five: Dee, Ronan and Swinton.  Of those, I think Swinton's performance was best.  She tends to creep me out sometimes, but she was good, and that's a damn fine film.  WILL WIN: Cate Blanchett.  It pains me to say it, but yeah, I think she'll take it for the Bob Dylan thing.  I'm going through a bit of Cate Blanchett Overexposure Syndrome (CBOS) at the moment, but she's obviously a great actress.  And people seem to LOVE that performance.  It looks hokey and weird to me in the trailer, but I haven't seen it, and I can only assume it's as good as people say.  SHOULD WIN: I think Swinton, though I have heard awfully good things about Ryan, too.  As for Dee, she was very good, and Ronan?  Great, but I really preferred Ramola Garai as the slightly older Briony Tallis.  She was so good, and no one noticed.

It's embarrassing that I've seen just Clooney's performance here.  Seriously embarrassing.  But that's the way it goes.  WILL WIN:  Hmmm.  It's tricky, you know?  It's my belief that, at this moment, Daniel Day-Lewis is, with Russell Crowe, the best actor around.  Period.  But all of these guys are great.  I'm gonna rule out Jones.  I see Mortensen as a long shot, but those sound like famous last words, ha.  I also don't honestly see Depp taking this.  So Clooney or Day-Lewis?  I think Daniel Day-Lewis will take it.  Looks like quite a part.  SHOULD WIN: I truly, truly think Clooney was amazing in Michael Clayton.  Brilliant.  For the last shot of the movie alone, he should win.  A less showy part, but excellent.

So wow, that took forever.  I'll do eight more tomorrow!